Assessments on Iraq

Iraq to the lack of spatial development policies behind the problematic economic construction

7/30/2015 0:00

Former adviser to the United Nations D.kamil dentex «morning»
Interview: Yasser incumbent
Iraqi economic expert stressed that the spatial development is one of the most important pillars of justice in the distribution of wealth, is achieved through the distribution of productive investment projects in between the provinces, especially in the presence of a large economic disparity among them, said economist expatriate Dr. full dentex in an interview with {for the morning} that any comprehensive plan should be based on the diagnosis of resources, on the one hand, and the areas of investment in productivity and service to the country level projects, and in geographical or areas where investment conditions are available sites, on the one hand Okhry.oukal dentex, a former expert in the Nations United: The rickety infrastructure already built and expanded and that is parallel or even pre-condition for the provision of a suitable ground for the construction of investment projects of the built master. However, it is known that the construction of a vast network of reconstruction of infrastructure in the large country, such as Iraq requires a large volume of investments, also requires is a short period of time for implementation.
The text of the interview conducted with him {} comes the morning:
Meet the challenges
Q: What is the best solution to the challenges facing the development?
- The solution lies in the distribution of investment projects and this distribution can not be done randomly but requires an important economic criteria in the selection they need to questions requiring answers and adequate, and spatial development is one of the most important pillars of justice in the distribution of wealth, it is achieved through the distribution of investment capital projects In between the provinces, especially in light of the large economic disparity between them.  And does not constitute distribution projects only way developmentally parallel between the different country geographic areas, Apart from the fact that this distribution is a major contribution to the GDP growth, it provides a rewarding income probably of the population in the various provinces, and helps reduce the disparity between the population in different areas, it helps relieve or reduce migration from poor to rich provinces provinces, where happen so an imbalance in the distribution of the population, and would raise the social and political might in rich provinces densely populated problems. The investment projects will be subject to distribution in turn to the task of economic criteria summed quizzed looking for a solution that Is suitable raw materials such as local resources are available?
The potential of the Renaissance
* Is the appropriate capabilities required by these projects are available?
- Is the infrastructure available, such as roads, bridges and means of transportation, whether for export or for the transfer of products to the rest of Iraq, whether for consumption or for use as feedstock for other industries in other provinces?
These questions must be posed by the investor, in the case of the weakness of these requirements, will pose another question about the value of the investments required to meet the potential shortfall in the province concerned? The time it would take this command to undertaken by the Government, for example, at least for strengthening the means of transportation and communications and to build needed roads?
These questions must be posed by the investor, even if the central government alone is to be undertaken.
The principle of installing the population in their areas will reduce the economic costs and reduces the emergence of social problems, as well as a decrease of overcrowding and reduce the environmental impacts arising out of it in the case of the weakness of the means of preserving the environment and avoid spatial distortions caused by population migration in architectural periphery of the cities which migrates its population Parties, as happened during the great migrations to Baghdad, and can not fulfill these tasks in a manner routine management of the government, as it has to be set up economic and architectural plan with the development of guidelines and educational policies, the timed approach calculated, being carried on according to the goals and objectives, taking into account the constraints and the problems that have to be encountered during the implementation of the plan that may be the near-term, medium or long term, in line with the incubation period of the investment, ie how long the implementation of the planned projects.
For building plans in the light of the availability of investments, allocated by the government or be adopted by the Iraqi and foreign private sector, it is necessary to provide studies and statistical information required for this purpose, it can not be the success of the plan like this without the availability of graphic indicators and studies demographic, geographic, environmental and economic. And that as well as information, education and provide guidance, and to convince people that "living" will be on the threshold of their role, if any factors necessary to do so.
Planning methods

* What are the steps required to follow under the mixture is homogenized in Iraqi economic approach and non-specific in order to avoid economic crises and distortions?
- We differentiate the concept of planning in both countries and the socialist countries and the capitalist countries that blends between socialism and capitalism, in the sense reform Ootamehh growth. In this regard dentex it shows that planning in the socialist countries focuses on the role of the state / government for the design and implementation of the plans. Central Valdoair, such as the ministry of planning or development, as has often called in the socialist countries, which are put different economic plans Bamad time. The planning process here, is the research and work of art and a forward-looking predictive. And describe the planning process requires a lot of technical detail in itself.
That any comprehensive plan based on the diagnosis of resources, on the one hand, and investments in the areas of productivity and service projects across the country, or in geographical areas where investment conditions are available sites, on the other hand.
So projects are appropriate and investments have diagnosed in the light of many planning standards, including identifying investment goals and the amount of executive supplies, human, technical and marketing, and define the objectives of the plan, in terms of volume of production and the size of employment and the size of the investment and the time horizon for implementation, and the amount of the expected contribution to the GDP, and the amount of help services and the infrastructure required, and other planning considerations that do not set up without detailed metadata to provide growth variables; consumption is expected, the size of the expected exports, and rates of evolution in the entry and the expected rise in the standard of living.
We note that socialist planning may exclude the participation of the private sector or even his participation, where the government is making the planned port and at the same time in the extreme cases, but some socialist states may allow for specific posts for the private sector in the Executive and service areas, for example.
In capitalist countries, Vttoffer full freedom of the local private sector, usually, and foreign according to the guidelines, not only for the implementation of investment projects, and even financing, planning and management. And the responsibility of the owners of capital for these projects are complete, but they of course will be held later to pay income taxes to be achieved the highest profits they reap. Of course, the investor has to be here to get the approvals from the relevant departments, to determine the legality of the project site and product, and preservation of the environment, security and so on. But the state / government played an important role in guiding these equities provide studies on demand and the amount of the expected growth rates of the volume, and perhaps provide temporary protection for when the project back on its feet and be able to domestic and foreign competition. The role of government in the capitalist system is a guideline and supervisory but does not include Aaltakotait and implementation processes. If what has been termed the nomination of some socialist, but he is not a socialist orientation and protective and supportive perhaps, but not as an outlet.
In countries that fall in the category of between capitalism and socialism countries, we may find a mix of socialism and capitalism operations. Because of the weakness of the private sector, meaning that the local private investor has the resources and the money may not be available to do the investing himself, and here the government interfere with the planning of the projects, has been monitoring the resources to invest them, but they may allow the private sector to play a role Contractor port, and possibly allow him to participate in the ownership of the project through the allocation of shares for sale in such projects that may arise in the form of joint ventures to public companies. It also allows the local private sector and foreign establishment of productive and service projects, but according to the executive, architectural and municipal regulations laid down by the state apparatus. It is true Aniz that such a system is located between the socialist and capitalist systems, and perhaps reap the advantages of the two systems and perhaps also Saiathma.
Infrastructure problem
* Infrastructure in Iraq is the basis of rickety move towards construction and reconstruction, what are the best way to invest in such strategic projects, borrowing or Order-term funding?
- The dilapidated infrastructure already built and expanded and that is parallel or even pre-condition for the provision of a suitable ground for the construction of investment projects of the built master. However, it is known that the construction of a vast network of infrastructure in a large country, such as Iraq requires a large volume of investments, also requires is a short period of time for implementation. In this case, the first question that jumps in front of us is whether the necessary funds in foreign currencies is mainly available to achieve this construction within a limited number of years? Direct answer, because of lower oil prices, on the one hand, and the war on terror of mainly organized Daash terrorist and what that entails in the depletion of the balance of the financial budget of the government, on the other hand, their low allocations for the purpose of investment in the general budget originally, from a third party, can not be the direct possibility in the implementation of large-scale projects for the rehabilitation of infrastructure in the Iraqi economy.
He seems, then, that borrowing is the way may become available for this purpose, assuming that there is a minimum level of stability is available for this purpose. However, Valaguetrad especially the outside is too expensive because of high interest on the one hand, and because of the lack of adequate stability for it.
In this case he may be thinking pressing need to invest foreign loans to a minimum, Mptdoan priority projects from the list of targeted projects, characterized by urgency and importance. But it requires an investment plan designed for this purpose, drawn as measured targets and time dimensions versus Classifieds tables of financial resources according to priorities, corresponding tables so-called cash flow, any showing sources of resources; local and foreign dividends, compared with no revenue may be realized from completed projects .
All of this should be calculated and planned within the time horizons consistent and the possibilities offered by an increase after oil exports. Funding Order forward, it will be of two types; local and will be the currency of the Iraqi dinar, and this can clog the allocated wages and salaries and the value of contracting local labor and contractors, local Iraqis; and this does not constitute the most important figure in commissioning projects, they need the permission of the foreign borrowing in dollars to buy equipment and machinery and materials imported from abroad. Accordingly, this matter will be located within the plan designed for this purpose, as we indicated.
Planning constraints
* What do you think impediments to planning and development in Iraq?
- To understand the constraints of planning and development in Iraq, we have to understand, at least, outlines the requirements for planning and development in the country. Starting the planning, essentially, on the availability of planning vision of the state of the Iraqi economy. This requires the provision of descriptive and analytical studies detailed structure of the Iraqi economy standards of quantity, where being diagnosed the ills of the economy and impediments to grow, and the distribution of economic activities and their determinants and the size and quality of available labor, and resources that can be allocated for investment, those directed to infrastructure, and levels of income and consumption and expectations of returns from exports, especially oil to determine the ranges of time, usually, according to the time plan may extend to five years or more. These are fundamental studies for the design of the plan, after the demarcation of the expected size of the obstacles to offset perceptions to the size of these obstacles and how to overcome them.
The most beautiful and planning requirements for development, the following:
1. Provide data and statistics are based on surveys and studies in situ include all aspects of the Iraqi economy;
2.taufer diagnostic indicators, in light of this data, statistics and surveys to a conclusion quantitative targets that could be proposed for the growth of economic activities at annual rates after the completion of the implementation of each project activity. And can be divided into activities at the college level, ie at the macroeconomic level, and at the sectoral level, any of the branches of activities; such as agriculture, irrigation and water industries; Mining and Manufacturing and craft small and perhaps medium, and the activities of building and construction, and this branch of infrastructure projects to the construction of houses and buildings of private and public , and the activities of transportation, storage, and service projects; schools, hospitals and many others, which requires many details, can not be mentioned now.
3.taufer studies and expectations for revenues; oil revenues, customs duties, taxes and charges revenue, profit and public sector organizations and others.
4.thouder tables called cash flow; include the estimated expenditures and revenue projections, if any, on the one project level, and the amount of exports versus imports returns Other bills and many more.
5.taatsm plan implementation rates for investment projects, and the expected implementation problems, and so on.
6.tad Ministry of Planning and Follow-up schedules for implementation in order to diagnose obstacles, and propose solutions and actions to achieve the implementation of plans within the time Amadha.
Can be seen from the above development planning is a technical process based on quantitative and expectations probability studies, with landmarks drawing methods to overcome the difficulties of implementation or funding and other field difficulties.
Of the above, give us a preliminary idea about the nature of the planning process for development. The possible obstacles, it we noted it, including those related to the efficient implementation, including those related to Bouktal expectations set for the returns, including those related to failure in the allocation assigned Lala amounts investment versus growing knee-jerk good for consumption, which then, lack of integrity and rampant corruption, nepotism and waste .

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Iraq is a country all 1,400 dinars per dollar

Basil Abbas Khudair Tuesday , June 16, 2015 at 00:00
Dollar in Iraq is not the word transient, but the currency that is reliable in buying and selling goods and services in local markets, everything is denominated in dollars and ordinary people, even though they had nothing to do sentences in the dollar, but they know the exchange rate first hand, and because of the very large dependence on imports from abroad rather than domestic production, real estate, cars, furniture, food and commodity prices have become different classifications linked to exchange rates, rises immediately after the rise of the dollar and the decline of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate prices, remain the same price or down very slowly when you get the opposite, which indicates that the dollar Iraq does not fully subject to the economic theories of supply and demand, but rather are related to factors other causes, detection does not need a large intelligence, which is known to the vast majority of those interested in matters of the country because it refers to the control of the (gangs) on the domestic market, has acquired immunodeficiency almost complete of actions taken to reduce the grip, some of them became like insects that are not affected by any pesticide but that some of them took a feed on those pesticides.

Before more than two months issued several warnings indicated the seriousness of the repercussions of the low dinar prices on the lives of the poor, the poor who make up the majority of the people affected by exchange rate fluctuations because some traders are taking advantage of the oscillation conditions to raise prices to fold change in the exchange rate, Valbarhh the dollar exchange rate of 137 thousand for every $ 100 was selling cola price of a pack 1,000 dinars, on this day, the exchange rate shift to 140 thousand and that happened is that the price of cola became 1250 dinars, which means that in practice the dollar's rise by 30 dinars per dollar citizen 250 dinars commissioned any nearly ten times and it applies to all goods and services, and other problem is that traders in various Osnavhm (wholesale and retail, brokers and others) are doing to raise their goods prices at the high value of the dollar regardless of the date of purchase, it bought the goods and the dollar in 1200 dinars sells the same merchant who buys the dollar 1,400 dinars price , and some promise that a profit even though they do not cut their prices at the high value of the dinar and exchange rate changes.

There are a lot of those asking whether the state can intervene and address the issue and re-exchange rates to form commensurate with the prevailing exchange rate at the Central Bank of Iraq and of 1,166 dinars per dollar, and they say how can not the state of the treatment which is (or dollar) Everything is handled by currencies Foreign in Iraq are from Iraqi oil sales as a primary source in the balance of payments and the entry of foreign currencies, Vtjarna not bring the dollar even out the dollar The currency auction or from their sales in the markets, they are when they buy dollars from the central bank to pay the dinar and paid a dollar and when import goods and sell them Iraqi traders, they sell them in dollars, not dinars, but where they come in Iraqi dinars to buy the dollar again from the central bank auction, it is a mystery that many people did not want to go into it and bridging Fjute, are liable they are buying the Iraqi dinar from money changers prices they prefer offices, and so They realized their profits much more than the importation of goods earnings, one of them told me that they, even if they lose their trade in the profit from the dollar and speculation exponentially fold.

Dollar exchange rates have reached today to 1400 dinars and this figure is not final, it is possible that the exchange rate to rise to much further as long as there is a demand for the dollar, high demand and is organized in the import and some to speculate and others to smuggle wealth abroad also does not rule out the existence of political targets of manipulation dollar, The country is locked in a fierce war to defend its existence and the lives of his people and the enemy has multiple colors and not a color one because (entity) and is not a state, and we say to those who possess the resolution and all national and professional, if the state did not strike with an iron fist on the Doaash the dollar will be the majority of our people, the position of embarrassing, and us the type of confidence that the State has tools capable of solving all the problems in the presence of clean hands and true talent, all the problems (economic) through which our dear country is the monetary and fiscal problems must meet her so until bring solutions through economic reform, because Iraq is rich when administered wealth as logical and correct, and we consider 1400 dinars per dollar, one of the yellow tags that must be converted to green by leaps and bounds, it is putting the shares to reach this mark used with near time of Ramadan and the insistence of our people to fight the enemies.

http://www.kitabat.com/ar/print/53356.php

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2015 budget and biting the Iraqi dinar - the study of the causes and the consequences

  March 25, 2015 11:34

D. Haider Hussain Al Tohme

Euphrates Center for Development and Strategic Studies

Iraqi dinar saw a sudden drop in price against the dollar than it was before the adoption of the state budget in January 29. He warned a number of experts and specialists in the financial and economic of the continuing decline of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the US dollar and its impact on the economic situation in the country's affairs, calling on the central bank to take swift action and effective solutions for the sake of the stability of the dinar exchange to save the national economy price.

The local market has recently seen a recession and volatile serious economic, coincided with the austerity budget for 2015 because of the deterioration of oil prices, and increased the continuing rise in the dollar economic conditions in the country's exchange rate worse. Citizens expressed their discontent and dissatisfaction with the currency fluctuations, stressing that this volatility cast a shadow over the stability of the domestic market and the standard of living for most classes of people, as well as the opportunity for traders and speculators to manipulate the prices are not justified.

Continued deterioration of the value of the dinar also raised against the dollar amazement and wonder a lot of specialists and non-specialists about the efficacy of the new monetary policy in the country, the fact that the deterioration mentioned revolving around the central bank's policies, policies which hover around two axes, the first price, which is sold by the dollar against the dinar, and the second The quantity sold of this dollar, the central bank is directly responsible in identified, but that is how the order details need to be clarified.

Originally -lo Strictly Adakkh- The public is who selects the daily market demands of the dollar, while the central bank exercised the role of providing these applications and what is reflected in the pricing. If the central bank to provide all the quantities according to the market mechanism, it will keep prices stable, while that if he sold the amount is less than what is required, the result is a lack of width dollar, which leads to the generation market parallel to sell the dollar, meaning that the dollar becomes his two prices , the first official determined by the central bank, and the other parallel to him away from this price by unmet demand, and is determined by supply and demand forces.

In the past, there was a difference between the two rates: the official price and the market price, but this difference was within the universally accepted standards, the 2% up, whereas the current difference is the 7% up to - 8%, which is a big difference means that we have become about the two prices, the official rate and the black market rate. Dollar exchange rate has risen during the past few days gradually up to 1290 dinars, in its highest rate in years.

To make matters worse, the General Budget 2015 Act, has committed the Central Bank of Iraq, in paragraph 50, identifying sales of foreign currency (dollar) in daily auction ceiling does not exceed 75 million, with the exercise of justice in the sale, and claim the participant in the auction bank providing goods enter the tax documents and data settling accounts and savings Alkmarki within 30 days from the date of purchase of the amount, and so it applies penalties stipulated in the Central Bank Act or regulations issued it, and use other banking tools to maintain the strength of the dinar against the dollar.

In this context, it is noteworthy that the foreign currency sales in the first half of 2014 from the central bank window has reached almost $ 25 billion, according to data published in the bank site, and for the full year compared to the first half of estimated sales of $ 50 billion. Has identified the budget sales ceiling law $ 75 million a day, and when the implementation of this article literally, taking into account the work days and is without a 250 days per year, the annual sales ceiling under the law, may not exceed $ 18 billion, and thus the window sales are less than half estimated for 2015. The demand to reduce the window sales does not mean reducing the demand for foreign currency, but to restrict the supply of government source. And will face a clear contradiction between the officially fixed exchange rate and the amount of sales that the decision of the budget law in advance.

In a related development, Prime Minister Counselor for Economic Affairs and economist Iraqi Dr. denied the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, was announced by some officials, who indicated that the central bank's actions are the cause of rising prices of the dollar against the dinar, stressing that the central bank basically procedures are immunization to the process of selling the currency action , and it aims to not wasting the currency for the time being, especially since Iraq is suffering from great financial hardship.

Saleh said At interview of the island Nt- The rise in the dollar price came on the back of lower oil prices in the international oil market, though most of Iraq's imports of Finance comes from oil, and the hard currency comes with oil revenues, adding that the Ministry of Finance turned half of the oil revenues to her reserve and crisis dollars.

Saleh added that Iraq does not have an economic resource is oil gets on the dollar through it, it does not issue a goods and materials and goods out of Iraq, nor reap from religious tourism or general tourism hard currency for the lack of attention, and customs applied to imported goods properly.

He stressed that the new central bank action came to fortify the dollar selling process, not a final stop currency auction, pointing out that the Iraqi dinar completely covered in foreign currency, and there are fears of a weak Iraq reserves of hard currency, at least in the foreseeable future.

The Central Bank of Iraq, had announced in (the 18th of January 2015), that the financial reserves of Iraq is equivalent to one and half times the weakness of the currency bloc, returned it the "best rates" in the countries of the world. He also confirmed that Iraqi financial institutions are "unable" to cover the fiscal deficit, he stressed the need to reconsider the structure of the budget and spending and to diversify sources of income and achieve the investment more broadly to address the decline in oil prices.

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D. Appearance of Mohammed Saleh *: the accumulation of financial capital (negative) and conflict اديولوجيا in Iraq's economic policy axes

10/05/2012 - 9.37

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Extent that they led the returns oil and تراكماتها, wealth
Financial capital of the state, trends and themes of monetary policy in the framework of the so-called effects .
Monetary fiscal policy (whether in the dominance of public finances to create a cash basis
Central Bank or the accumulation of foreign reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq being a cover
The national currency in circulation outside the central bank) that the monetary effects of the financial .
The public has become clear in making the idea of     Independence     Central Bank (from my point of view Personal) as     Second preference     best Second, rather than being     First preference     As you want That monetary policy     The dominance of the financial state capitalism     On the evolution of the overall movement of money
In Iraq, controlling or monitoring monetary and developmental trends and consumer according to     اديولوجيا Hybrid     Imposed by the present situation and the state of the economy, as an extension of the rentier state phenomena Central     .


The state capitalism Balyatea the operating Taatcyr and directions Public finances in line with them and detail, which leads at the same time the movement of capital Financial Ahli promised the latter a natural extension of first through market آصرة the mechanisms that Formed as a business is consistent with the financial the Eladiologi composition of state capitalism, particularly the consequences of Problematic consumer distribution in the general budget of the capacity in which he dominated capitalism State investment in the distribution problematic in that budget. The widening scope of equality and justice in the budget And to maintain the public distribution phenomenon across the predominance of consumer budgets and operational delivery of goods .


Essential public service nature that enveloped overhead and trends at the expense of Low investment opportunities productivity and efficiency in the unbalanced equation led to the formation of Attached ranges from national financial capitalism civil Adapted to the consumption pattern of the financial state and configuration of the rentier state capitalism.


Firas your money and Trakmath the financial and severity configured this The direction, expressing the degree of integration and docking between the operational elements or Consumer in the budgets of the country's public sector development and the capitalist financial Ahli Who was born a consumer sectors commercially externally supportive to him, especially after he changed Iraqi life models and patterns of living and the globalization of consumption during the past nine Years, which came as a reaction against the harsh remnants of deprivation and starvation during the siege contract
Economic and pains.

فضياع national investment opportunities and to maximize production and leave for The establishment of real material accumulation mainstay of production and economic progress came because of community involvement and directions State capitalism towards consumption fun and laziness and inaction against the will of the production and maximize Investment, which led without doubt to create a capitalist financial sector Ahli product of state capitalism Finance determines the level of cohesion and integration in the formation of     The overall financial capital     Of the character
Severe profit and consumer Creator to financial institutions parallel to it is the other integrated with Consumer business renaissance looks forward in Taladtha with the external market for purchasing office or Transmission money. In this Astmzjt financial capitalism civil and commercial capital .


In streams Atptad the phenomenon of creating wealth and achieving financial capitalism from the prior written consent During rotate speed of financial capital and profit maximization and speed of recycled by recycling at least Three times per year in the scope of the business cycle Consumer Links between our country And the outside world.


Due to the lack of investment opportunities in the productive sectors, With the exception of financial investment Ahli aforementioned الملتحم severe adhesion equation Consumer, commercial investment backlog of capital gains and the general wealth Capitalism Almighty growing financial capital accumulation they have to find an alternative sitter In the business cycle short range that extends to markets in geographical regions Commercial surrounding Iraq, as those regions turned into   External financial warehouses Absorb the accumulated profits of the business cycle Iraqi short-term, which we call It Iraqi external savings . On this basis, taking the financial capital Way to accumulate a surplus in those External financial warehouses And regional, including In particular, which is the result of surpluses or capital gains the capital-الملتحم financial Ahli Commercial which is under development and strength with the severity of the general budget expenses and the predominance of character
Consumer. In order to because Aneptad much about what we write Malate, the financial capital The state was generated by virtue of consumer orientation and distribution that are looking to create a community Welfare rates and consumer perceptions exceeded expectations in the creation of a well-off society .


Productivity as long as this process is fuel oil rents easy collection and easy accumulation . Therefore, the birth complications financial and commercial Preference Consumer Affairs quick profit and cost-effective Must be uttered surpluses and Edjaradtha outside the country to meet the maximize marketing capabilities towards the Domestic consumption in light of the small Preference application of national production sector and weak alternative investment It is Illness and problematic of the current economic system In the country and the source of conflict Eladiologi and frequent الابهامات or unknowns in Iraq's economic policy axes Whether financial or monetary or trade and on top of that with development policy
Enigmatic monuments . Monetary policy of the Central Bank of Iraq, which was built on The adoption of a market economy mechanisms and indirect tools to intervene in the money market and to address The high levels of cash generated by the public finance through the movement of capital
The country's financial surplus request to Aakavoh produce real material generated by investments or real, except One of the bonus is a financial asset reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq and its cash assets Foreign. And that this bonus interview Streams of higher consumer spending generated by the public finances through spending multiplier is Product which is the source of the evils of inflation and the deterioration of living unless rewarded commodity display and service and AVI Which is to Ayuverh the political economy of this dilemma in Iraq characterization system
Economic unless it puts the Iraqi Central Bank reserves and foreign currency cover
To meet the demand to reflect the financial strength dollar pose rights to third-party services or goods
Foreign be under the power and the will of the National Commercial sector and الملتحم financially with a financial
State financial . Policy of sterilization Adopted by the central bank to control the
Levels of liquidity and absorb the huge demand for liquid dollar-denominated Iraqi Dinars
And based on insufficient supply of foreign currency to meet consumer demand and various
Demand varieties, including the accumulation of commercial profits of financial capitalism and Iraqi
Broke the pillars conflict Eladiologi the day between fiscal and monetary policy in the
A market economy, the great capitalist it is the financial capital of the state capital subsidiary
Financial Ahli as if there is a conflict on the distribution of wealth within the camp of capital ! .

Vmzad foreign currency to the Central Bank is funny auction
Wailing which hides it conflict Eladiologi both between the joints of the same economic policy
Or between the overall financial capital (public and private) where looking for monetary policy mechanisms
Achieve its goals in imposing stability on the standard of living
Using the stability of the exchange rate and the general level of prices, and this is a condition in which
Requires a high line with capitalism
Ahli sector financial and commercially الملتحم with overseas exciting and reservoirs
Controversial that stoked the center of the conflict with state capitalism to end to the conflict within the joints
The same economic policy which the wars of the accusations and ignoring concerns that the illness
President is the characterization of the economic system in Iraq and the problematic rentier system
Beat it state capitalism, a source and a compass that conflict generation. فآليات currency auction
Which is based foreign monetary policy to achieve its goals in stability for ايعد of all
Being single systems to deal with the overall financial capital and its parts and Trakmath dinars
Iraqi spent through the public going forward that dominate 60% ​​as a percentage of GDP
Iraq's gross and resources generated by oil pour into the end in Mphaqs capitalism
Iraqi Finance, which take place outside the country, whether in the consumer finance trade
Or settle تراكماتها financial business profits in those warehouses outside safe
The financial Kpar border polarized to the Iraqi capital accumulation . Question is accused : Lahey
Fiscal policy (compass capitalist economic system the total tax بادواته financial
) Or foreign currency auction (of being a tool of monetary policy facing the strength of those
Capitalism and provide her sitter stability)? It unknowns Bewildering in the Cupboard
The vagus Iraqi economic system in detail, movement and orientation as an economy Strong
Consumption weak development .

Valtrakm financial Iraqi capital was still looking for shelter
To diversify the province Outside the country, percentages and proportions are consistent and the accumulation of wealth and capital
Overall away from any real investment opportunities, industrial or agricultural or other productive
With an effective impact in bringing the power of growth can reduce actual unemployment to rank
The per decade and reduce the current alarming levels, which is still among
Young workers more than 25% of that class task . And as long as the movement inside the head
Money in this direction and orientation, the central bank auction will continue to be one of the largest problematic relationship
Between state capitalism and the National Capital to represent the entity in the acquisition of conflict
Wealth-sharing and touched the source of the charge within the economic system between the contradictory currents
The same capital and sources of wealth transfer mechanisms out of the country, both for trade finance or
Keep Pfoaúdha in those regional warehouses and others. Vdhiraah stability and maintain
The standard of living of the monetary policy will remain the priority of no importance in the midst of contradictions
Current in the movement of financial capital and the conflict raging not Altnahari between the capital
Ahli and his birth state capitalism and forces rentier .

The correlation between the financial capital of the state and civil
Were still were continuing and coexist without reaching the stage conflict Altnahari but in the spring of peace
And a sharp contradiction, but the scouts and the level of intensity conflict reflected in the mirror of foreign currency auction
Central Bank of Iraq. Although they are still also one case and hand
Related activity has made ​​the country a machine first-class consumer and investment Off
And the level of production similar to Amehal. But conflict and bug level تفجره is funding machine
Foreign currency and interpretation of the legitimacy of the surplus to finance capital Ahli and the legitimacy of conversion
And economic freedom in dealing with the accumulation of financial wealth warehouses outside the country through our system
Financial capitalist economic enigmatic landmarks in the interpretation of the limits of personal property and freedom
Dispose of them ! .

If the conflict within the camp of capital
The picture is Altnaharih Iraqi until this moment, it must be a little in-depth research on the impact of
That conflict and ideological contradictions within the joints of the Iraqi economic policy itself .

I've defeated distribution and search for justice
Social development in the country's public budgets rentier the idea of economic growth and advancing
Development of the country and investigate opportunities for wealth creation
Physical and maximize returns from outside the oil sector of the circumstances and the data passed by the contract
Last Anchors difficult before alterations social and economic, political and international interventions are
Greater than the capacity of the country .

When you return to the philosophy of fiscal policy
I see the source of conflict and power generation found financial capital has a philosophy about the fragile
Other resources funded by the general budget of the non-oil revenues. So let everyone
To tax the resources of the general budget not find it by more than 1% of total revenues
The annual budgets of the country's capital, which means that a strong partner for financial capitalism
The state get free meals free lunch as long as the easy tax deduction at source
Than four million government employees who enjoy them and their families the justice of distribution outside efforts
Market and the accumulation of financial capital Ahli through the mechanism of transfer of financial capitalism to state
Individually and capital accumulation continues to move from the state to the financial market outside corridors
Circle the composed اديولوجية tax uncontrolled free market and Adiologitha in the configuration
Financial capital or financial capital accumulation (negative) because of its two two advantages
: Tax exemption or evade it easy and stability in the money and warehouses Hawwadhanha
Out of bounds .

ايخفى that the process of increasing the capital stock of
Material (energy produced) is the only one that expresses the so-called capitalist accumulate material
(Anode), which is the main source of growth Economic different Bamadeh. Otherwise,
The leak of financial capital in a foreign savings is more like the game with Group
Zero zero - sum
game in the Iraqi economic system. Accumulated فالربح
Outside the border, which we launched it idiomatically B (negative accumulation) equivalent in principle
Loss of material accumulation within the national economy (accumulation anode). So, the equation
Profit and loss is equal to zero in the outcome of the country's economic growth in the Toy Group
Zero .

In other words, any leakage of financial capital (negative )
In savings unless offset by external leak inside the positive financial capital, will come deduced from
Physical processes of capital accumulation (positive) generator of economic growth within the
The country, which means that the added value and economic impact of the growth will be generated
In overseas economies and the financial resources of those warehouses which store capital accumulation
Money Iraqi National Financial and at the expense of internal growth receded. Instead of turning
Financial capital to physical capital or real within the national economy, we are seeing activity turns
Savings outside the country funded physical investments in those regions activist foreign
Economically .

One paradox in terms of fiscal policy, come about
A similar tax in moving the game with zero group. فقيام public finances
Collection of tax default name : Tax return on capital (negative ) Negative capital gain tax does not mean only in its content exempting capital returns
Abroad or rewarding tax exemption or even impose a tax pro forma or lean as it happens in
The present time. The word (negative) here a very serious issue in in essence مكنونات the stresses
The ideological conflict between the joints of the economic policy and contradictory axes (financial
, Trade and monetary). In the sense that the Iraqi public finances since 2003 granted
Privilege of the Iraqi capital secured a double exemption mixed with freedom of movement
And migrate to the warehouse away from external financial development of the national investment opportunities
To end the country's state of the intersection or alienation Alienation with
Real domestic investment and idle labor market .

Valmkhaev is our country, that the national financial capital
And the accumulation of wealth is still looking for immigration and identity outside the home and the masses of unemployed
The sons of my people. Posing cases of willful defiance of state capitalism and financial capitalism
Financial family in a civil dispute has not yet reached the stage of divorce. As long as the system
The current economic lives in the blur between centralization and uncontrolled free market. It is interesting that
The labor market Iraq and multitudes Atlleha, the (in human capital) chasing albeit slowly capital market
Financial immigrant probably to no avail, because in the current era of globalization is the globalization of transmission head
Iraqi money, including the transmission and not globalization work Iraqi باليسر and the ease with itself, as
Was happening in the first era of globalization (ie globalization in the Victorian age / era Queen
Victoria), where he was working, for example, moves from the shores of the North Atlantic
South and east easily and conveniently to the shores of North and South Atlantic westward with looting
Colonies and wealth converted to Almitropolat or central capitals in the industrialized world
First Ktheroat the financial represents capital accumulation and globalization in a different way .

Whatever the results, the case of the current economic system in
Iraq paid to the migration of the national financial capital and surplus profit trading system
Fast and powerful consumer with the slow migration of work and occupational forces in human capital,
Both ends outside the incubator home development .

Iraqi Finance did not find a way appropriate to impose
Taxes on capital returns positive positive
capital gain tax as mentioned above in order to come out of its game Zero .
Vtadel taxes (negative) for capital returns with the tax returns of financial capital (
Cation) is still practiced zero group game itself zero
sum game.

Even the Iraqi Finance could not escape from the fact that the conflict
And the ideological contradiction between economic policy and ranges areas where conflict and the level of
The Altnahari contradiction between state capitalism and financial capital Ahli a financial
Trying to get away from the controversial group Zero zero sum
debate
As we crossed them earlier in the analysis of the phenomenon of tax on capital .

Votharh public finances to the issue of Iraqi capital accumulation phenomenon
Financial capital (negative) and stopovers in a campaign debate on foreign currency auction
Central Bank of Iraq did not represent a only evade phenomenon in the failures of the economic system solution
The current Iraqi and diagnosis مكنوناته and fundamental ills cross-correlation and the contradiction between capitalism
State and National Capital in the equation is solvable looking to move towards the economy
Market and this amount of contradiction and conflict and fact Alamurlabd of that overlap collide
Incompatible and contradictory interests and orientations and fought in wills or content and Jdlyate the movement within the system
The Iraqi capital itself in both its State
And the private sector .

We have moved away from the Iraqi Finance in her really to find solutions
Zero for the game which could not by themselves provide harmony in the movement of capital and mechanisms
Configured via activation of its power to separate the overlapping tax and provide harmony within the camp
The Iraqi capital itself and it's still smart
So to get away from the failures of the game zero tax and it is serious about transforming Msartha
Through unspoken quest to find a partnership in the foreign currency reserves of the Bank
Central, taking into account the current ideological contradictions in the joints of politics
To conduct economic transformation in beliefs
Addressed the phenomenon of the accumulation of capital (negative) and reservoirs outside the country without the introduction of
Problems of poor tax policy and its ability to disengage and contradictions within the camp
Iraqi capitalist, as long as the marriage continues
Between Alrosmalitin despite their being in the case of willful defiance !.

Also headed the Iraqi public finances to monetary policy
Dealt with in seconds, which is independent within the second preference second
best
For it is impossible stabilization policies in the future to the third preference third best
When fired hints recently indicated the possibility of post using public finances
Iraqi Central Bank reserves and borrowing from the tax as long as the (negative)
Financial capital returns Ahli can not be converted into tax (positive) (which represents a return of a free state capitalism
To recover the oil revenues through Borrowing From the cover of the Iraqi currency to express
Fierce competition not Tnaharih between rentier state capitalism and the financial capital
Ahli, who paid in cash in Iraqi dinars without borrowing in foreign currency collected from
Cover), and here lies the conflict processes in solving the problem of the game zero fiscal
Becoming to of another form of taxation easy collection, which we launched
Metaphorically (B escape forward) any collection (Inflation tax inflation tax)
Easy collection deduct foreign reserves of the Central Bank at the expense of stability
The goals of monetary policy and in the third preference. Noting that the inflation tax will be
Fundamental paradox in the game of conflict within the joints of the economic policy, which will be replaced
Tax returns of capital (negative) within the forward escape the inflation tax. The former
Should have been paid Financial capitalism , While the Inflation tax
Which constitute the basics of waste stabilization will be paid by the Iraqi people and fairly high Tptdo in
Pfqraúh before Agneaúh a practice known to the Iraqi people during the stage of the economy
Political siege !.

In other words, the accumulation of capital (negative) or taxes
(Negative) returns on capital does not only mean in essence that the financial capital
Civil, being derived from state capitalism, sparing herself surplus
The underlying tax collection and neglected several potential ends in surplus
Warehouses outside the country without find a site in the internal development activity,
To Ibrgbtha as a funding initiative in which financial capitalism itself towards real activity
Developmental and strong financial power in order to benefit
Of public finances in the collection of taxes and revenues that touched surpluses fleeing from the development of our countries heading towards strongholds
Savings and reservoirs outside the country !!!!

Zero فاللعبة same group of public finances and Arhasatha
Between the accumulation of financial capital Ahli (negative) and the accumulation of financial capital Ahli (
Positive) or dealing tax on capital, both positive and negative, have been transformed Speech
Public Finance Off of conflict trends within the system of economic policy
Contrasting trends and directions. And this time, as we mentioned, is Replace
Capital tax spilled outside the border and exempt or tax slacker as understood
Economic system in Iraq Tax Other devote division and infighting within the
An economic policy Inflation tax Through unbridled lust in the collection
Central Bank reserves in foreign currency out of that state capitalism is the owner
Azam and her right to the reserve in the collection that you see fit and post Grimha top
Money Financial accumulated Ahli (negative )
Outside the border and who finds ضالته in the double-capitalist activity and individual commercial market deals where
Financial capital Ahli Passenger Free free
rider
Live on state capitalism financial Awittafl via the use or traffic mechanisms
Monetary policy (foreign currency auction)
The last time when still practiced Goals Stability , And try to be submitted
To the people as a public stable (dinars stable) enjoyed by everyone outside of the contradictions of capitalism
National and conflicts raging in the present day !!!.

When growing maldistribution of income outside the general budget
Capital accumulation becomes Ahli financial burden on economic development which glides
Safe to warehouses outside the border, What is the Public finances that can not
Redistribution of income from capital fairly by imposing a wealth tax
Capitalism positive (being not possess the ability to characterize ideologically economic system
In Iraq and moving in the orbit of current events with little systematic ), But Looking for alternatives
Faster in tax collection and maximize resources Replace the wealth tax
Capitalism positive difficult fetched inflation tax That can be collected off is easily Asrabr the use of bank reserves
CBI for the purposes of the general budget and convert
To the center of state capitalism again without that set the financial capital Ahli via
Problematic conflict in the current Iraqi economic system through the role of capitalism
Financial civil, which are seen as derived from the rentier state capitalism and intrusive
By various ways and means provided by the Iraqi economic system in its current form .

What will remain of the Iraqi Central Bank independence after taking signals the transition from the second preference second best
By virtue of dependency mechanisms for public financial strength or state capitalism to become over time
Third preference third best as we have said, to fade those
Independence in a game that will transform zero-sooner or later Head tax
Money To Inflation tax And the deduction of the reserve through the dominance of state capitalism
Conflicts within the system of total capital and the contradiction between the joints of the economic policy .

Finally .. It
Ideology of our current economic system and correlative in the duplication of high intensity between capitalism
Rentier state based on oil and financial capitalism of Ahli Almstgueth activity it
Or spammed it .

At a time when the economic system looks in the Iraqi transition towards a market economy, but in light of market
Unbridled outward (consuming and Edjara) and balancing general consumption ديدنها and carry just
Wish development, the elimination of Zero game phenomenon Which they indulged
Public finance system as a victim of the conflict in Iraq capital, which in turn generated horizon
Last of the prospects of conflict with monetary policy is similar to the conflict between capitalism and the head of state
Money Ahli Financial terms of dominance, obstetrics and dependency .

On this basis, the Zero game for the fiscal
In the treatment of tax return on capital (negative) can only be treated with the integration policy
Monetary and financial operations promise نتوءا in fiscal policy mortgagee wheel system
Economic position of the rentier state capitalism. And resolve the conflict within the economic system
Currently to Aithml independent of the Central Bank of Iraq at all, and the reorganization of
And market-sharing and resolve the contradiction between the state's financial capital and financial capital
Ahli can not be avoided dismantle docking system capital and انسيابيتها the flows but
Can be avoided by imposing Inflation tax To solve the problem of capital accumulation
National continued passivity and stability in its warehouses outside the border, and then enable
The distribution of the burden of the tax breaks is received or receivable from the proceeds of fragile financial capitalism
(Negative) offer of Inflation tax It is a tax that would bear the segments of the people, 's Poor
Before Agneaúh the , Fairly high burden imposed on everyone??? As long as the wealth
Domestic capital for tax Athompsha (positive) to check pattern Mieia the more efficient and fairer
For the benefit of the general budget, if that wealth has been moving smoothly in the accumulation Mrdodadtha
Tax benefit (negative) in savings Leaked outside the country, the burden will be converted to revenues
Uncollectible, but through the inflation tax paid by the Iraqi people for it through a partnership
Public finances in the cover of the national currency reserves .

He was the director of the game zero fiscal .. He
Escape Forward !!

* Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq

Iraqi economists network Maes 2012


Difficult Times Ahead for Iraq

Interviewee: Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor
January 10, 2013

The Iraqi government, headed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, faces difficult times ahead, says Meghan L. O'Sullivan, a former top official dealing with Iraq in the Bush administration. "The coming year will not be an easy one for Iraq," she says. "It will need not only to address a host of persistent internal issues, but also must contend with regional forces which--in themselves--would be sufficient to challenge Iraq's progress." She says Maliki is under strong pressure not only from Sunnis and Kurds, but also from fellow Shiites, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, who is now opposed to many of Maliki's policies. O'Sullivan says that even though Iraq is now rich with oil profits, the ordinary Iraqi is still not benefiting much. "[M]ost Iraqis do not see these significant revenues as translating into better lives for themselves and blame the government for incompetence and corruption," she says.

It has been more than a year since the last U.S. troops were withdrawn from Iraq. How would you describe the situation that exists there today? Has Iraq's political system stabilized?

The last year since U.S. troops withdrew has neither met the worst fears nor come close to the greatest expectations of Iraqis and Americans. On the security side, while bombings have continued, there has not been a serious escalation of violence resulting from the departure of U.S. forces and the full assumption of security responsibilities by the Iraqi security forces.

The last year since U.S. troops withdrew has neither met the worst fears nor come close to the greatest expectations of Iraqis and Americans.

In contrast, on the political side, the trajectory is clearly downward. The year 2012 was marked by continuous political crises, beginning almost immediately after the American withdrawal was complete. Today, the logjam between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) seems more intractable than ever, with the forces of each side nearly coming to blows just two months ago. Sunni political leaders are claiming their community is being "ghettoized" and sharply excluded from the political process; thousands of Sunnis have taken to the streets motivated by these feelings. There is even a political crisis within the Shiites, with Muqtada al-Sadr accusing the prime minister of turning Iraq into "a farce" and seeking to rally his own supporters in street protests. For the second time in less than a year, Iraqi watchers are doing the math and trying to determine whether a feasible combination of opposition parties have the parliamentary votes to bring a vote of no confidence against the prime minister.

The big picture is that few of the fundamental issues that have divided Iraqis have been addressed, despite the significant improvements in the security situation since 2007 and the departure of foreign troops. While Iraq is more stable, its institutions have gained in strength, and its economy in some ways is thriving, there has been little reconciliation between the country's groups and no development of a shared vision for the country--and therefore only a tenuous basis on which to move forward.

The protests against Maliki organized by Muqtada al-Sadr, who has been calling for an "Iraq Spring" to match what has happened in other Arab countries, seem to be aimed at trying to weaken Maliki's control. There are provincial elections set for the spring in Iraq, but do you think Maliki will try to disband parliament and have new national elections?

Prime Minister Maliki's challenges right now are not so much with parliament, but more with Iraq's political elite. The prime minister has managed to alienate most of the elite, even while remaining popular with many ordinary Iraqis. Early elections are, in fact, one of the demands of the political groups opposing Maliki who want nothing more than to replace the prime minister. This could be achieved either through early elections or a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. Some would settle for a pledge from Maliki that he will not seek a third term in office.

The vote of no confidence route was tried last summer and failed, largely because the Sadrist bloc backed away from their pledges to support the ouster. Maliki, in provoking the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Sadrists (who are Shiites) all simultaneously, may have pushed his luck too far this time. [However,] the chances of these groups staying united in parliament long enough to conduct a vote of no-confidence is still unlikely, not least due to the inevitability of Iranian counter-pressure.

In theory, the street, more than parliament, could be the source of political pressure on Maliki, but this would require the Sunni movement merging with a robust Sadrist street movement. Although there have been efforts over the past days to broker this marriage, much history and suspicion lie between the two groups, making an effective merger a challenge. Moreover, most Iraqis, after decades of trauma, are not disposed to take to the streets to change their government, when (unlike the other "Arab Spring" countries) elections provide an option.

There was a tense time last year when Maliki sent troops to border areas. Where are the Kurds in all this now?

Kurdish President Massoud Barzani championed last summer's efforts to remove Prime Minister Maliki--and the Kurds have borne the brunt of this failed attempt ever since. Maliki took Barzani's opposition to heart and has since taken multiple steps to marginalize the Kurds. He established a parliamentary committee to examine how much money the KRG [Kurdish Regional Government] "owes" Baghdad for unsanctioned exports. He began holding cabinet meetings in the territories contested by Baghdad and the KRG in an effort to establish Baghdad's primacy over them. Of even greater concern, Maliki established the "Tigris Command," an operational command structure unifying the police and army in the disputed territories under the control of one general who reports directly to Maliki, rather than through the minister of defense and the normal chain of command. Maliki has also concluded a number of weapons deals to increase the capability of the Iraqi security forces, in his own words, "to fight the terrorists in the desert and the mountains." (It was not lost on the Kurds that they are the ones who live in the mountains.) In November, there were clashes between the Iraqi forces and the Kurdish peshmerga forces along the now-contested line demarcating the borders of the KRG; such clashes are not entirely new, but are occurring in an increasingly tense atmosphere.

While Iraq is more stable, its institutions have gained in strength, and its economy in some ways is thriving, there has been little reconciliation between the country's groups and no development of a shared vision for the country.

In short, always tense relations between Baghdad and Erbil are at an all-time low since 2003. But, while the bilateral relationship may be at a standstill, Kurdish development is moving ahead briskly. The fifty or so oil deals inked between the KRG and international oil companies--and the expectation of a booming oil economy that will come with their fruition--continues to drive stunning development in the KRG. Trade between Turkey and the KRG--estimated to be nearly $8 billion of the total $11 billion of Iraq-Turkey trade--has also transformed the region. Particularly in light of the ongoing tensions with Baghdad, the future of the Kurds in no small part rests on not-yet-existent pipelines from the KRG directly to the north and their ability to convince Turkey that it should accept, should push come to shove, exports of Kurdish oil even over Baghdad's objections. While such an idea would have been fanciful five years ago, the remarkable rapprochement between Ankara and Erbil--and the growing animosity between Ankara and Baghdad--no longer make this vision seem farfetched.

Is Iraq's economy finally improving?

One could say that Iraq's economy is booming, largely due to the oil sector, which had a banner year in 2012. After a few years of frustrated development, Iraq's production exceeded 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year and the country seems poised for substantial additional gains in 2013; some anticipate that in 2013, Iraq could break its all-time production high of 3.8 million b/d from 1979, the year before [former president] Saddam Hussein launched the Iran-Iraq war. These high levels of production, and international oil prices buoyed by geopolitical worries, delivered Iraq close to $100 billion for the year.

Nevertheless, most Iraqis do not see these significant revenues as translating into better lives for themselves and blame the government for incompetence and corruption. Electricity is more widely available, but from private vendors who charge a premium, not from the government. The combination of Iraq's burgeoning oil revenues and weak institutions are cause for serious concern. Iraq has all the hallmarks of a country which will suffer from the "resource curse"--the proven tendency of resource rich countries to grow more slowly than resource poor ones.

Two small glimmers of light suggest some awareness of this possibility. First, Iraq just became the largest oil-producing country to be EITI compliant (an international mechanism to encourage transparency in the oil sector); second, the World Bank just pledged to provide Iraq with $900 million over the next four years, primarily to help it better manage its oil revenues.

In regional terms, how are Maliki and his government handling the crisis with Syria? Are extremists crossing the border into Syria regularly? How closely aligned is Maliki with Iran right now?

It is difficult to speak of an "Iraqi" foreign policy, because Iraq's internal divisions mean that there are different individuals and groups advocating conflicting policies and building external alliances that they believe can suit their own interests. As a result, Iraq as a state has not really been able to pull its weight as a regional player up to this point.

Syria is a good example of how different groups have different objectives. Maliki has tried to portray Iraq as neutral in the current conflict, but it is no secret that he and his supporters fear the fall of Assad and have not been 100 percent cooperative in stemming the likely transfer of support to it from Iran. Most observers see this as evidence that Maliki is a "stooge" of Iran, but the reality is more complex. Quite apart from any Iranian pressure on Maliki (and there undoubtedly is some), Maliki sees the possibility of huge pressures on Iraq emanating from a post-Assad Syria.

Many Shiite Iraqis anticipate that, once successful in overthrowing the Alawite regime in Syria, radical Sunni groups will shift their focus to Iraq, renewing violent challenges to Baghdad. Maliki and others, rightly, are also nervous that a Syria which fractures will create greater pressure from the Kurds of the region. While the Assad regime was clearly no friend of Baghdad throughout the past decade, this is certainly a case where Maliki would prefer the known devil over the unknown. In contrast, Iraq's Kurds see possible benefits emanating from Assad's downfall, as Syrian Kurds become more vocal for their own autonomy. Some in the Kurdish community are contemplating whether regional forces are going to provide a historic opportunity for Kurdish independence.

The coming year will not be an easy one for Iraq. It will need not only to address a host of persistent internal issues, but also must contend with regional forces, which in themselves would be sufficient to challenge Iraq's progress.


http://www.cfr.org/iraq/difficult-times-ahead-iraq/p29791?cid=nlc-public-the_world_this_week-link24-20130111


Iraq floating between state and "Islamic State of Iraq"
By: Jassim Mohammed - 17-10-2012 | (Voice of Iraq) 
Iraq floating between state and "Islamic State of Iraq"

Iraq the failure of the political process and the deterioration of security


By Jassim Mohammed


National Security


The concept of national security means securing the protection of the state from internal and external threats, which could affect the structure of the state.
The formation has been shaped Jhazalmkhabrat Iraqi National in 2004 and the formation of a parallel national intelligence in 2005 under the name of the Ministry of National Security.
And holds the prime minister directly to national security through his adviser for national security affairs / Fayad and Brigade 56 rapid response and information office within the Office of the Prime Minister and the Department or 2 within military intelligence on the collection and analysis of military information is a difficult task while keeping the position of Minister of Defense and Interior administered by proxy, This group of security agencies and bodies created a new dictatorship in decision-making, and created a lot of intersections there are a number of security and defense institutions, without coordination or information systems and administrative among themselves.

Iraqi National Intelligence Service:

Was formed Iraqi National Intelligence Service in April 2004, referring to the approval of the State Administration Law Transitional Coalition Provisional Authority on 8 / March / 2004, that article entrusted to this device gather information and assess threats and provide advice to the Iraqi government and be under civilian control and under the control of the legislature and the works and in accordance with the law and human rights principles.

Chapter VII of the Constitution has provided for the legislative oversight of Article 23 during the transitional period, that being the legislative oversight to the Iraqi National Intelligence through the Commission adopted in the national legislature.


Readiness of Iraqi forces

Bear the Iraqi government responsible for the fragility of security, more than others in addition to Msúlaa committees intelligence and security in the House of Representatives and the Council of the province of Baghdad and the provinces, after all a wave of bombings, we find members of parliament debating or attempting laws and decisions exceptional to secure Hamayatem, without any review to how to provide protection for the Iraqi people.
Deterioration reflects the failure of running the security file and the failure of security plans and the failure of its leaders. But it is not fair to assume the entire intelligence failure institutions but shared by the government and parliament.

Rates of violence in Iraq

According to the standards of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Iraq has witnessed a 36-type attack, stressing that occurs injuries comprehensive in January / January 2012 and that a significant increase from the average 23 attacks per month in December / December 2011.
As the death toll officially declared the other is on the rise, where reportedly killed 340 civilians in January 2012 compared to 155 in December 2011, after two years of the formation of the Iraqi government in 2010, the number of reported incidents.

Iraqi Awakening


Awakening was established in Iraq in 2007 with the support of the government and U.S. forces to confront al-Qaeda in their strongholds, which observers described Kandahar Iraq.

He played recruit tribal members a prominent role in the weakening of al-Qaeda in 2007 and 2008 to reach Awakening census to more than one hundred thousand.
The U.S. military oversaw the Awakening before handing over responsibility to the Iraqi government in 2008 in accordance with a presidential order bears the number 118, which agreed to give 20% of them jobs in the police and army, to be paid for the rest of the monthly salaries for the protection of their areas against al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda and practiced great pressure to win the Awakening and re-joining the ranks of the organization again, and trying to create a gap of mistrust between the Awakening and the security services through the implementation of bombings and murders in their areas of responsibility which result in the arrest of Awakening fighters and holding them responsible

Security breaches in their areas.
It is therefore necessary to deal with the file Awakening humanly and nationally to support the Awakening fighters and their families and keep potential return to al-Qaeda or "Islamic State of Iraq," or armed groups closely Ttrsdhm.

"Islamic State of Iraq" and a series of operations


I have turned into armed operations since last year 2011 of random processes organized and coordinated operations, armed groups are from own initiative, and decide the place and timing, Vostahedvt operations headquarters of the provinces and councils, including the province of Baghdad.

The armed groups turned their modus operandi to a wave or series of operations one after another instead of individual processes or planting bombs.
These processes certainly provoke shock and awe and establishing a presence on the ground and in the media reflects the organizational capacity. Often Matbnt "Islamic Iraq" those operations.

Invasions demolished fences

Rose "Islamic State of Iraq" slogan demolished fences, referring to the upcoming operations targeting output of its prisoners after the announcement of the leader of the "Islamic State of Iraq," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who replaced Abu Omar in July 2012 to launch operations launched "demolish fences" aimed at freeing prisoners regulation.
And do goal invasions aimed topple the political process in Iraq. Also threatened to target judges and prosecutors in Iraq in a bid to ease prisoners Dgutathm.

The regulation adopted in Iraq, a series of attacks, including storm the headquarters of the Anti-Terrorism Directorate end of July 2012, and announced in his organization has claimed responsibility, adding that the operation has detonated two car bombs near the front gate and rear of the Mkarodjul few bombers into the building.


Has adopted al-Qaida in Iraq, the attack on the prison Tasfirat Tikrit end of September 2012 which enables dozens of elements of those sentenced to death to escape, admitted killing of five of its elements.
He added that "the detainees took control of the prison from the inside in conjunction with the others to liquidate guards the main gate detonated a car bomb parked and cut the roads leading to the complex security before attribution patrols."

Prospects for the fall of the Syrian regime

Represent Iran, Syria and Hezbollah fixed triangle, represents both a challenge and a chronic headache for U.S. foreign policy aimed at dismantling this triangle, any disengagement Syria away from Iran and Hezbollah.

That the policy of imposing international sanctions on the regime in Tehran and to bet on you eat from the inside with escalating media war and threats and raise the ceiling on the conditions the EU and the U.S. Altdf in the face of Iran's nuclear program and what he was at a meeting in Brussels on 10.15.2012 which included consensus a European and welcomed U.S. economic sanctions directly on Iran, to pull Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program, possible to withdraw this decision and others on Iraq as a result alliances majority blocs of Iraqi politics with Iran, including the Helms warnings U.S. to transport arms shipments through Iraqi airspace, in addition to taking a stand U.S. over Iraqi banks.
These political and security developments and Alaqtsadah in Syria and Iran as possible to push Iran to export crises to Iraq.
Lama al-Sham is in the grip of the Syrian regime, and sources indicate that the system fired some senior captors from Syrian prisons.
That base in Syria thorny issue of multi-threading There Jund al-Sham base that holds the system and there is a central organization and there are fundamentalist groups fighter, volunteers and mercenaries poured Wa to fight away from swear allegiance to a central organization.
Budget

Iraqi government has spent large sums of money Iraq and its defense budget.
There were decades were not without corruption, and deals to import explosives detection devices and control cameras in addition to the graduation of large numbers of volunteers in the security and defense, did not have any effectiveness. Maliki's visit comes to Moscow and Prague on the tenth of October 2012 to increase the size of spending on security and defense at the expense of other aspects, without any significant progress in the reality of security.
It is expected that the President of the government signs agreements with Russia to supply Iraq with aircraft and helicopter gunships and military equipment includes Sukhoi and MiG aircraft and helicopters "Mi -24" updated, in addition to other military equipment worth an estimated $ 5 billion.
Prague also confirmed the possibility of buying Baghdad 28 aircraft Czech subsonic aircraft -159.

Size of the budget


The size of the federal budget for Iraq in 2011 amounted to 82.6 billion dollars, of which 30 trillion dinars investment expenditure for the whole ministries, and $ 66.5 trillion dinars operating expenses, while the defense and security allocations alone $ 14 trillion and 72 billion dinars.

The detection and Minister of Planning and Development Cooperation Ali al-Yousef Shukri told private Radio Free Iraq that the state budget for 2013 is built on the basis that the amount of $ 116 billion U.S., an increase of $ 14 billion for the current year budget of $ 102 billion to be the highest in the history of the Iraqi state since its creation in 1920.


Human rights violations in Iraq


Work of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in Iraq, according to resolution 1770 relating to the mandate of the mission and other relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council.

Have wondered newspaper "The Guardian" British 8/5/2012 reasons why Iraq immune to international criticism about his record in human rights violations, according to a report issued by the United Althaddh and on its publication in 05/30/2012.
As indicated Guardian that Amnesty International and the Organization "Human Rights Watch", got the documents for trials judicial Garadelh and torture during the arrests, and has documented and said Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Iraq, "This report highlights a number of shortcomings which are a source of serious concern and need to be urgently addressed by the Iraqi authorities, there is no democracy without respect for human rights. "
The United Nations Mission in the same report, "The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki withheld data on civilian deaths. Either Head of the Committee MP Salim al has stated to life in Maes 2012, that the Commission on Human Rights Parliamentary have much evidence for high degrees of torture.

Conclusion

Political failure

Iraq has hit records in the size of the destruction of the Iraqi state and in the volume of casualties provided by Iraq as a result of terrorism and political terrorism and sometimes sectarian conflict in the wake of the former regime change 2003.
The political performance of the political process in Iraq has become, for example, where the cases were beaten deterioration and collapse and failure of Iraq to be close to Kabul and Mogadishu in the volume of political failure and insecurity.
The political process has become sterile does not work with the consensus and partnership, it has become a truly shameful history of Iraq and its people.
And reached by Iraq of the performance of political and security flabby sends to disgust.
Based on the political scene Tsagit blocs each other through the conversion of the government and the parliament seeks to cause harm to each other and which are subject to deals and bargains within the government and parliament, there is no national Iraqi project, but no threat files under the table.
The budget and the state budget, and turned only to cover the salaries of the government and parliament and privileges to be consumer's budget and there is negligence in Iraq's money, which is still far under Title VII.

Politicians in Iraq and especially the government is betting on the end of the period of the current rule Marathon to Marathon begins new laughter based on the beards of Iraqis under the name of democracy versus blood.


I find that what Iraq needs now is to restructure the political process entirely new, any end of the political process to all parties, from the scene after sagging performance Sassi and suspended the constitution and directed a military government / emergency approved by Parliament itself if taken in its accounts the interest of Iraq national and suspended the constitution .
But will it clear that Iraq away from the Islamic courts in Mogadishu, ruled by warlords and bully the zonal or like Kabul and Kandahar flowing terrorism from within.

Operations "Islamic State of Iraq"


The operations "state Aeraaq Islamic", in 2012 took different directions in recent just make matters quality operations that have taken a line chart and clear through the implementation of more than 27 military operation quality affects institutions and security stations in one day, part of the plan has been agreed as part of the work of armed groups allied with al Qaeda, "the Islamic State of Iraq."

"The Islamic State of Iraq" aims of these operations to send messages to the Iraqis and to some communities that there is no protector in Iraq is "Islamic State of Iraq", because the government is unable to protect itself until now the judge and the investigator feels insecure after his many killed.

The theme of escape and smuggling prisoners frequently catastrophic and size, most recently was jailed Salahuddin represents a political farce and an insult to the security and homeland called Iraq.


This confirms that the "Islamic State of Iraq" and armed groups allied was the first implementation of processes to make machine murder and terrorism strike Iraq in length and width, especially after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq late Uncle past 2011, so I find that Iraq needs to go back to work security agreement with the United States , especially in the wake of the near collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who opens the political landscape in the Middle East to all possibilities and possibly the Middle East is divided into Awstin according to the doctrine, and re-map area of new alliances.

Quality operations carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq, all elected and thought, in terms of the choice of targets, which focused on quality centers of the state and its security institutions, including the Major Crimes Department and the criminal and Tasfirat and central prisons, to completely pull the rug from under the government and its security forces.
These operations have become an exhibition by the Islamic State of Iraq to be Iraq the biggest loser because of continued government quotas and the process of political partnership that did not come to Iraq and Iraqis, but the destruction and the smell of blood, and instill a culture of terrorism and sectarianism and the militarization of Iraqi society, which became live really between a State, but the Government of floating generalized and " Islamic State of Iraq, "the bearded.

News has become arrests senior al-Qaeda "and the Islamic State of Iraq": not of importance for the Iraqi people amid security chaos and decline in the political process.
In the time that when the government publishes news of arrests leaders of armed groups and their leaders by the elite cells and the fight against terrorism, followed by a series and a wave of bloody insurgency, did not complement there is a comparison between the number of arrests and outcomes.

Developments in Syria


The status link Syrian axis Iran and Hezbollah, the anti-American policy and can not afford to manage the White House today to bear the consequences open battle with the parties to this axis may be prolonged and multiple locations and can not not take seriously the warning came on the San Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that Iran will defend its regional ally.

These developments security, political and economic Guy Syria and Iran as possible to pay Iran to export crises to Iraq invested presence large in Iraq. Do not rule out that the pressures of European on Iran and the deteriorating situation in Syria prompt Iran to invest its authority with its allies valuable Iraq in order to solve its economic problems, including export Oil plus Asthadam Iraqi banks have to face the alternative European pressures.
Either on the security front surely paid Bmilishadtha for escalating rhetoric against the United States and the West. And try distracting the United States in Iraq and Lebanon to ease its crisis in Syria and Iran. Note that there are four levels of Iranian intervention in Iraq, which is its relationship with the religious leaders and their relations with Iraqi officials and their relations with the armed groups as well as economic ties in Iraq.

Tackle terrorism in Iraq


Is known that security in Iraq is missing the basic rules and institutions but not bear the Iraqi intelligence and security full responsibility as long as it is subject to consensus within the political process among all blocs and parties, but the political blocs are responsible for the blood of innocent Iraqi civilians by Atahnthm terror machine.
Helms in Article 4 of the Constitution, which stipulates that the Iraqi National Intelligence Service has the power to gather information and intelligence management activities relevant relating to:
"Endangering national security of Iraq and terrorism and insurgency, the production of weapons of mass destruction and drug production and trafficking and serious organized crime" is a grave mistake, before we put the onus on the executive branch and the security services, the Iraqi legislature bear the first mistake in misreading to intelligence and national security , reflecting the misery of intelligence in the Iraqi legislature and security committee in parliament.
Any that the fight against terrorism is the responsibility directly under the anti-terrorism directorate, which must be a separate department for the intelligence service.

The traditional way in the fight against terrorism


Terrorism in Iraq fighting a primitive way following traditional publishing periodicals and detachments which are themselves becoming targets for terrorist groups and unable to protect themselves note that there operations did not declare them Aovernma not the media, that the fight against terrorism should be intelligence and surveillance in conjunction with rapid reaction forces high efficiency rather than infantry forces normal and pre-emptive strikes to terror strongholds.
With the need to take advantage of the advanced technical technology in the fight against terrorism. So I see that Iraq needs to activate its intelligence cooperation with the United States.
Everyone is betting on the failure of the other, and this does not mean never that institution intelligence per operate within the atmosphere of national action and mass, they also suffer from a loss of confidence affiliates each other because of varying experiences and backgrounds professional and many Matard some to threaten to ablation and the law of accountability in addition to the lack of capacity and competency after their reliance on loyalty Almellixiaoa and party and merge.

Iraq has become a number out of the political equation in the region and indefinitely, amid a spiral of terrorism and political terrorism.

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Expert: Iraq will be the most developed countries in the global oil economy

07/26/2012 0:00

Stated that alternative energy can not compensate for the needs of the oil during the next fifty years

Said Academy specializes affairs oil that opening up the technological world is witnessing led to be the economics of oil and gas, the cornerstone of the growth processes of producing countries, stressing that this concept is to make the oil markets, the upper hand in the organization of economic policy for the various joints, advanced industrial countries, and while he believes that the stage the current through which Iraq require more strategic planning, stressed the need to find a tool or a driving force for the advancement of economic destruction, saying that oil is the most prominent of those tools and the driving means toward economic transformation towards achieving progress in sustainable development rates in the country.

The head of the IT department of oil in the University of Technology, Dr. Khaled Al Ajami al-Rubaie during his speech for the (morning):

You need the economic boom in the various industrial sectors to finance financial in order to create the infrastructure, where the oil stream President for the construction of many of the vital sectors, so the driving force to achieve those gains are oil class basis, which is the most prominent factors to encourage and move the process of investment in various sectors of business and services and thus achieve an economic renaissance comprehensive in all areas of production.

He said al-Rubaie said the world and the Next Fifty Years will not be able to dispense with the oil and gas as the main reservoirs of energy, He noted that the ratio of these two elements in various areas of the world amounted to more than 63 percent of all the key elements of energy, this means that the oil can not be replaced by any element of another during the time periods ahead, which calls for the exploitation of those for the rehabilitation of all industrial facilities, commercial and agricultural and tourist revenues that come to the country for the sale of petroleum in the world.

Iraq relies by more than in some cases, the proportion of 90 percent on oil imports in the previous Moisnath coverage, and to establish strategic projects task, and to cover operational expenses of the general government sector.

And warns the concerned of the dangers of this matter on the economic reality in general, and stress from time to time the need to find outlets other investment of non-oil, and increase production rates, and reduce the imports of industrial lead to the migration of big money abroad, stressing at the same time the importance of rehabilitation of public industrial, agricultural, and to the extent that they can Aanaachehema of production and competition and thereby enhancing the financial resources of the country and reduce the near total dependence on oil.

According to al-Rubaie that despite the great interest which the world is witnessing the subject of alternative and renewable energy, but it can not compensate for the demand for oil and gas in the global markets in the coming years, likely to increase rates of demand gradually over the next few years until you reach the highest ratios in 2020, warned at the At the same time the possibility of being affected by oil prices, many of the factors that lead the result to lower prices in world markets, especially the wars and the political situation volatile faced by countries of the year and in particular OPEC (oil producing countries), as well as pressure on those countries which usually hinder the plans and the specific production ceilings and built on a broad base of considerations.

However, al-Rubaie said that among the factors affecting the price of world oil is the financial and economic crises experienced by the world, as happened in 2009, and price fluctuations in the seasons of summer and winter, and increase the number of factories, the giant in the developed countries, as well as environmental factors and natural disasters that control is other world oil prices.

Is based on spring to a number of studies and research in his assertion that Iraq will stand at the forefront of countries with economies in an oil firm in the coming years, so having many of the qualifications the task that stands in the forefront of oil reserves and high potential physical, human and openness to the world, pointing out that all those combined features will play a vital role in Iraq to stop at the forefront of countries that have oil sobering economy in the region.

Explains Rubaie said oil licensing rounds, the four witnessed by the Iraqi oil sector is a sign of progress confident towards creating economy oil is strong, and the formation of science policy tries to Iraq crystallized in its strategy in the medium and long term, stressing that these tours will be reflected positively on the economic reality in its entirety for all provinces Iraq, praising the timeshare itself, including its oil ministry’s efforts said it was excellent in increasing the volume of oil investments, calling on them not to stop at a certain level to raise production but also to contribute in bringing about economic integration in the areas of refining and the provision of derivatives and exported in the construction of petrochemical industry that require more effort and hard work.

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Iraq beyond 2011: Prosperity or Turmoil?

Posted on 24 May 2011. Tags: , , , , , ,

By Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst, Founder & CEO of  Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

 The recent upsurge in violence across Iraq ( sticky bombs, car bombs, roadside bombs, targeted  assassinations, suicide bombers, prison breaks, etc…) underscores, irrefutably, the ubiquitous vulnerabilities of Iraq’s national security forces that is exacerbated by a host of daunting and intricate constraints: politicized security apparatus, lingering ethno-sectarian loyalties,  political sectarianism, and the region’s geopolitical tensions, namely, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional ambitions.

In the absence, thus far, of a US-Iraq postwar strategic partnership, the impending complete withdrawal of the U.S. combat troops from Iraq by the end of 2011  and the protracted political horse-trading over the security posts (defense, interior, and national security) will,  ultimately, undermine Iraqi Security Forces’ operational capabilities (air sovereignty and border security, for instance) and, subsequently,  jeopardizing Iraq’s national security. Moreover, given the high levels of interoperability of the two militaries, the foreseeable security vacuum could pose a serious threat to Iraq’s national security, namely:

  • Reemergence of the quasi-defeated extremist groups, namely, AQI, Jaysh al-Islami, the Promised Day Brigade, Kata’ib Hizbollah, and Asaeb Ahl al-Haq.
  • Rekindling of sectarian violence and lawlessness that engulfed Iraq before (05-07).
  • Precipitating the war between Baghdad and Erbil over the disputed oil-rich Kirkuk.
  • Disruption of Iraq’s oil production and supply and, subsequently, Iraq’s petrodollars.
  • Invigorating Iran’s centuries-old expansionist and religious ambitions in Iraq – turning Iraq into a satellite Shiite theocracy.

Moreover, the cumulative effects of the ruling class’ ineptitude and schism are protracting decades of erroneous policies and, subsequently, the people’s tribulations. Thus, impelling the majority of the Iraqi people to distrust the legitimacy of their government and the effectiveness of its institutions as evidenced by the latest protests, which accentuated the Iraqi people frustration with their elected officials’ ineptitude and their epic failure to curb corruption and end ethno-sectarian quota-sharing system.

The deep-seated political sectarianism and its inherent symptoms, namely, impoverished and disenfranchised population, lack of basic services, higher unemployment, severely languished infrastructure, ineffectual institutions, and rampant corruption are most likely to linger for years to come if the political class continue to pursue self-serving and sectarian-based agendas and political marginalization.

Thus, given the aforementioned challenges, the ruling class (executive and legislative branches) ought to outline clearly its postwar policy objectives and priorities, in accordance with the country’s laws and strategic interests, and heed to the aspirations of its people, regardless of their political and religious believes.

Drawing on past experiences (Eastern European Countries, for instance), Iraqi government ought to craft a comprehensive strategy encompassing socio-economic development, a genuine national reconciliation, and a modern security architecture as an imperative prerequisite for attaining  political stability and, subsequently, building a modern and prosperous Iraq.

Conversely, in the absence of a strategic foresight and a strong leadership capable of implementing the aforementioned  strategy, Iraq may revert to its darkest years of lawlessness, religious extremism, political instability, foreign interventions,  and ethno-sectarian strife. Simply put, Lebanization of Iraq’s nascent democracy.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariqx@gmail.com


Categorized | Ahmed Mousa Jiyad

Federal Oil and Gas Law: Viability, Coherence and Functioning Perspectives

Posted on 20 December 2011. Tags: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad, hydrocarbon law, Oil and Gas Law, oil law

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Mr Jiyad is an independent development consultant, scholar and Associate with Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), London. He was formerly a senior economist with the Iraq National Oil Company and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, Chief Expert for the Council of Ministers, Director at the Ministry of Trade, and International Specialist with UN organizations in Uganda, Sudan and Jordan. He is now based in Norway (Email: mou-jiya@online.no). 

Introduction.

The meetings between the federal and KRG delegations held in Baghdad in the last days of October 2011 resulted in an agreement to base their discussion on the February 2007 version of the federal oil and gas law-FOGL.

Detailed, thorough and article-by-article assessments of the February 2007 draft of the law have been done and published by known Iraqi oil professionals, including this writer. The consensus among them indicates the draft suffers from many very serious flaws that ought to be addressed, revised, and redrafted. Moreover, essential and fundamental provisions are, by now, have been overtaken by events that render them outdated, irrelevant and dysfunctional.

What is needed then a very serious look into every article and the entire proposed law from substantive, format and operational aspects to insure its viability, coherence and proper functioning. It would be a grave mistake to consider the “law” as “political deal” since all had learned that most if not all political deals, in Iraq, are easily forgotten and short live!

This intervention aims to shed light on the most important issues and matters of concerns, which should be taken into considerations during the process of negotiating and finalizing a proposed draft of this law.1

  1. Time factor effects

Many very important developments have taken place since February 2007, which makes it imperative to revise seriously various articles in the law since these provisions have been overtaken by events and thus became almost obsolete or redundant.

First: Among these developments are the bid rounds concluded by the MoO that led to concluding long term service contracts. These have generated many major consequences, which have direct implications on the proposed law.

Second: All major oilfields (except few such Kirkuk, Bai Hassan, East Baghdad among others) have been already contracted for re-development and/ or development with IOCs involvement. Consequently, there could be no need to offer any of the remaining fields for IOCs in whatever way or method. These remaining fields could be legally (by this proposed law) earmarked for INOC (to be reinstated), as suggested below.

Third: The concluded service contracts with IOCs, if implemented as envisaged, together with the production from other fields would bring Iraq’s production and export capacities to very high and unprecedented levels, even at partial success of half the contracted production targets. The implications is that there are no compelling reasons for Iraq to expand the production capacities any further at least in the next 15-20 years. The law may suggest a moratorium on any “new” development of oil fields for no less than 15 years. Moreover, the law ought to emphases the proper development of the contracted fields in the most optimum way to ensure the constitutional principle of “highest benefits to the Iraqi people”. Accordingly, the field development plans (initial and final) are of paramount importance that they should be formulated by technically competent petroleum team, approved by and constantly monitored by petroleum central authority;

Fourth: All the bid rounds were based on a service contract type and modality. The law should clearly extend support and preference to this type of contracting by making it mandatory to use this type of contracting. To prevent any misinterpretation it might be advisable to have a specific article in the law to make it unlawful and unconstitutional to conclude Production Sharing Contract- PSC in petroleum upstream sub-sector. The law ought to prohibit PSC in any phase of exploration, or development and production activities, in compliance with constitutional basic principles of collective ownership of petroleum resources and the best interests of the Iraqi people.

Fifth: The service contracts have already established significant milestones that are superior to those envisaged under February 2007 version of this law regarding, interalia, fiscal regime, conservation measures particularly those relating to gas utilization, good vs. best international business practices, dispute settlement modalities etc. Accordingly, good number of articles in this proposed law need revision on the lights of what actually have been concluded and evolved since February 2007.

Sixth: The relationship between this law and the proposed laws for the Ministry of Oil, INOC, Revenue Sharing and finally the General Commission for Observing the Allocation of Federal Revenue have to be well coordinated and considered to ensure harmony and coherence.

Seventh: The proposed law should be revised in the lights of the recent development pertaining to ExxonMobil/KRG deals and their possible impacts on eradicating the authority of the federal government over the petroleum sector. Specific provisions might be needed to prevent the repetition of such actions in the future.

Finally, by now many have publicly expressed the operational limitations of 2005 constitution, which were not fully tested when oil and gas law was drafted and proposed in February 2007. This is discussed next.

  1. Proper and correct application of the constitutional articles.

The proposed law should attempt to have clear provision and article to address and avoid all the known ambiguities of the constitution, particularly those pertaining to oil and gas. There is absolutely no good purpose in repeating selective and biased interpretation of vague articles in the constitution aiming at weakening the role of the government on all petroleum policy issues.

The law should put an end to conflicting interpretation of these constitutional provisions as many respected and independent international legal opinions provide excellent guidance in this respect.

Petroleum policy and fields development, including contracting with IOCs to develop upstream petroleum, should be stated clearly as sovereign matters and are among the prerogatives and authority of the federal government.

Moreover, the law should make it mandatory on the federal government to prove that any field development involving IOCs delivers the highest benefit to the Iraqi people, as the constitution requires.

  1. Effective contribution of all branches of Government

The proposed law should adhere to the constitutional principle of balancing the role and contribution of the three branches of authority: Judiciary, legislative and executive, especially with regards to upstream petroleum development contracts with IOCs.

As essential requirements the law should embrace three parallel principles to ensure checks and balances that:

  1. Executive authority has the legal mandate to negotiate, conclude and sign the contracts;
  2. Legislative authority (the Parliament/Council of Representatives-CoR) has the legal mandate to review, debate and promulgate laws to legalize these contracts if they are in conformity with the best interest of the Iraqi people and other principles on the constitution;
  3. Judiciary authority has the legal authority to have the final decision in case of conflict between the two other authorities on the subject matter.

The above three essential requirements ought to be formulated through very clear, definitive and affirmative clauses in the proposed law to avoid the possibility of circumventing any of them and or limiting their due role and authority. Therefore all articles under “CHAPTER II: MANAGEMENT OF PETROLEUM RESOURCES” of the proposed law should be revised and redrafted accordingly.

4- The Federal Oil and Gas Council-FOGC.

This is the most important entity that would be created by this law. Therefore articles pertaining to its role, functions, objectives, formation and structure have to be debate and drafted carefully and clearly. It should be remembered that since no reference is made to this council in the constitution, therefore its creation is not a constitutional requirement. Moreover, the council has “non-election legitimacy” due to the possibility that only its chairman (the Prime Minister) would be elected, while other could be appointed. Finally, the council has specific professional and technical function and nature and therefore should not be considered or perceived as “political” entity.

The followings are issues of vital importance, which the proposed law should consider:

A: FOGC Membership and Structure

  1. The representatives of the “producing provinces” should have proven record of experience in petroleum industry. The representative could be nominated by the related province but the nomination has to be approved by the Council of Ministers.
  2. The three “experts” members should be Iraqis, to avoid any interpretation that permits foreigners to hold membership. The number of experts could increase in case the BIA is removed, as suggested below.
  3. It is highly advisable that FOGC has permanent General Secretariat with well-qualified and experienced Iraqi staff in fields related to the nature of FOGC functions, responsibilities and role. Having permanent general secretariat is essential to ensure continuity since all members of FOGC (except the three experts) are there by virtue of their official positions not professional qualities, and thus the possibility of their turnover could be high and frequent. Moreover, it could be appropriate that either the Minister of Oil or the Head of INOC acts as the General Secretary of FOGC in addition to the membership in the council.
  4. The core entities of the upstream and midstream petroleum sub-sectors should be well represented in FOGC. These include INOC, SOMO and other related State companies under the auspices of MoO.
  5. Considering the rather large number of FOGC membership, their nature of representation, and the magnitude and strategic significance of the functions and role of FOGC it is important to insure balance between representation and efficiency considerations so that FOGC conduct its functions effectively.

 B: Functions of FOGC

  1. FOGC cannot decide the “Petroleum industry policies” since FOGC does not have the legal mandate, the technical capacity and institutional representation to do so for three reasons:
    1. Decisions on such policies are among the functions of Council of Minister-CoM in the area of development plans.
    2. The term “Petroleum industry” covers also all downstream sub-sectors, some of which such as gas industries, petrochemicals, refining industry and others are outside the scope of this law, as stipulated in Article 50.
    3. These vital sub-sector downstream companies are not represented in FOGC.

Therefore FOGC could suggest or assist in formulating these policies but not decide them.

  1. FOGC should not decide the “national petroleum production level” since this is the function of CoM. However, FOGC can suggest or recommend the suitable national production level and the modalities of assessing the equitable contribution of each producing contracting area.
  2. The draft law gives FOGC members new authority to suggest laws. But FOGC members cannot have the authority to suggest laws, as this function is confined to the Parliament and the Government. Thus this right might be contested on grounds of unconstitutionality.

 C: The Bureau of Independent Advisors (BIAs)

1.      FOGC deals with matters mostly of sovereign nature that has long-term implications for the petroleum midstream and upstream sub-sectors and the Iraqi economy at large. These matters should not be left in the hands of “one year” employed advisors.

2.      The infringement on sovereignty would be highly probable if any of the BIAs is foreign national, and this possibility does exist in the version of February 2007.

3.      The proposed law gives too much power and authority to BIA. Thus, they would in fact be the effective decisions makers within FOGC despite their temporary and short-term employment.

4.      The temporary term of employment in comparison with the magnitude of their function and influence would make the advisors unnecessarily susceptive to corruption that could very well undermine and compromise the Iraqi national interests.

It could be more feasible to delete any article in the law regarding BIAs, and substitute the BIA by strengthening the technical capacities of the General Secretariat of FOGC as suggested above.

D: Decisions by FOGC

1.      The law should ensure that decision taken by FOGC should not be subject to veto by any of its members, or by minority members and should not be taken by consensus, as this practically gives veto power to any member, and renders FOGC inactive;

2.      The approval of FOGC should not be deemed given due to elapse of time.

3.      Decisions pertaining to contract awarding through licensing process involving IOCs should not be final but subject to the approval of both the executive (CoM) and legislative (CoR) branches of government.

4.      The law has to clearly demarcate the line of authorities and jurisdiction of this council to avoid conflict with and overlapping over the territory of other vital entities such as CoM and MoO.

5- The role of the Ministry of Oil- MoO

The MoO plays a pivotal monitoring, regulatory and policy role. MoO is responsible for monitoring petroleum operations to ensure adherence with the laws, regulations, field’ development plans and contracting terms. In addition to its administrative and technical duties, MoO carries out verification of costs and expenditures incurred by the holders of rights to ensure correct and justified cost recoveries for the purpose of determining revenues accruing to the government. The Ministry through inspection, auditing and other appropriate actions verifies conformity with legislation, regulations, contractual terms and internationally recognized practices. Performing such diverse tasks requires specialized professional, legal, technical, accounting, planning and even diplomatic expertise.

Decentralization is important, necessary and useful, but at the same time it must first be well planned and phased/implemented properly. Second, institutional and human resource capacity development must commence as soon as possible. Third, there must always be a central organ-MoO, which coordinates with and supervises those decentralized entities to preserve and guarantee the supreme national interest.

Therefore, the law should not weaken, marginalize or undermine the role and function of the Ministry. Moreover, the timing and coordination between this law and MoO law has to be maintained to avoid predetermination or pre-empts each other.

6- Matters related to INOC

The proposed law creates, wilfully or by negligence, ambiguous, contradictory and not reassuring situations for INOC with regards to oilfield allocation, types of contract, priorities and the treatment of the company on a competitive standing.

Provisions relating to INOC should be made very clear accompanied with full list of all fields (producing, under-development and discovered but not yet developed) and known exploration blocks earmarked for INOC.

And since the most prized oil and gads fields have already been contracted with IOCs, the remaining fields (developed, underdevelopment or discovered but not developed) should, as a rule, remain within and develop through national direct efforts and, as exception, develop through service contracts.

The parliament had, in July 2011, debated a draft law for INOC but that did not lead to finalization of an acceptable version. Therefore, the timing and coordination between this law and INOC law has to be maintained to avoid predetermination or pre-empts each other.

This implies there is and could be an organic linkage between the three laws: oil and gas law, the Ministry law and INOC law.

7- Petroleum Revenues and Funds

The proposed law (article 11) obligates both the executive branch (CoM) and the legislative branch (Parliament) to enforce a “federal revenue law”, which creates and regulates “Oil Revenue Fund” and “The Future Fund”.

There are many serious problems with the said article and its provisions as summarized bellow:

From technical, procedural and constitutional way this law cannot be the legal source to promulgate another law, e.g., revenue sharing law, since the constitution is the legal source and reference for the latter law according to articles 106 and 112 of the constitution.

The parliament has not so far tabled for debate any draft for “federal revenue law” though a text of such a law have been circulating unofficially. However, the CoM has proposed in September 2011 a draft of new law for the “General Commission for Observing the Allocation of Federal Revenue”.

It appears that all these five laws are connected together, and they should be promulgated simultaneously. But this is the real problem! Each law is connected to the other four laws, thus creating a type of vicious circle.

It is therefore very advisable to remove article 11 completely from oil and gas law as there is no legal justification to address revenue sharing matters within this law in such un-substantive way.

8- Legalizing already concluded contracts

The proposed law should have clear and complete provisions to review, assess, recommend and finally legalize any of the contracts concluded before a specific cut-off date. The following is suggested for this legalization process:

1.      A specific full-time Iraqi team comprising known Iraqi petroleum experts with proven track record should be formed to review and assess all concluded contracts within a specific time frame (for example, no more than six months).

2.      The team should develop a unified approach consisted of objective criterion to review and assess all concluded contracts. Principles of transparency, competitiveness, openness, comparativeness, corruption-free, absence of any forms of financial irregularities, adherence to the usual contracting practices, participation of related stakeholders, are few examples that should be included in the assessment yardstick and process.

3.      Both MoO and KRG are obliged to provide the Iraqi team with authentic copies of all signed contracts with one month from a specific date. No contract would be accepted after the month deadline, and the said contract would be considered null, void and illegal.

4.      The review and assessment could require streamlining all these contracts to one form only. This could mean the conversion of all production sharing contracts into service contracts with terms and conditions similar to those concluded by MoO taking into considerations the comparative differences of the related fields.

5.      The team would only recommend contracts if they were assessed to have been in compliance with and deliver the best interests/ highest benefits for the Iraqi people (as required by the Constitution). The recommended contracts would be reviewed by CoM, and when endorsed they would be send to the Parliament for consideration.

6.      The Parliament considers the contracts case-by-case, and a law promulgated according to the due process would legalize the approved contract.

7.      9- Balance of and harmonization between the Federal, Regional and Provincial-FRP authorities.

8.      The proposed law should have clear demarcating lines between the three authorities to ensure their effective participation and functional cooperation in a balanced, coherent and harmonious way.

9.      It is very essential to avoid repeating the vague provisions of the constitution that have created confusion, different and contrasting interpretation that could weaken the role and authority of the central/federal government.

10.  Many articles in the proposed law need very serious revision to ensure real, effective and workable FRP co-management.

11.  10- Regulating future field-development contracts

12.  As mentioned earlier most of the highly prized oil and gas fields have been contracted with various IOCs through MoO bid rounds and KRG direct deals of PSCs. These concluded contracts together with other producing fields would bring the country’s production and export capacities to unprecedented levels.

13.  Consequently, the proposed law should take the above into consideration, and thus all provisions regarding future contracts and licensing procedures should be revised accordingly. The followings are the main issues, which the law ought to consider:

14.  1- Earmark all fields (producing, underdevelopment and discovered) and Exploration Blocks (current and future) for INOC;

15.  2-INOC develops all fields through national efforts as a rule and through only Service Contracts as exception but with majority participating interest to ensure national control. It is preferable the law contains clear and specific prohibition of any contracts with IOCs other than the Service Contracts;

16.  3- Service Contracts can only be offered through competitive, transparent and credible biding round with fully known and accessible licensing process involving all stakeholders: provincial, regional and federal related authorities;

17.  4-If such development involves IOCs, the service contracts would be subject to the approval of the parliament and legalized by federal law;

18.  11- Health, Safety and Environmental- HSE considerations

19.  Clearer, broader and enforceable provisions should be included in the proposed law. The status of the related infrastructure, carelessness by the operators and any other incompetence’s and cost considerations could indicate to high probability of serious environmental disasters.

20.  Reference to and full compliance with known international standards and best business practices should constitute the minimum standards for health and safety requirements.

21.  12- Institutional and Human Resource Capacity Development.

22.  The proposed law has to pay special attention to these requirements. Provisions of vital importance are need to ensure increasing “local contents”; to prevents corruption; to protect human rights; strengthening the corporate social responsibility-CSR towards the local communities on the part of the foreign investors.

23.  13- Matters Related to Gas Conservation and Utilization

24.  The conclusion of natural gas related contracts pursuant to the second bid round and the three gas-fields pursuant to the second bid round would make it imperative to revise the related provisions in the proposed law.

25.  The proposed law should also take into consideration the forthcoming exploration blocks bid round.

26.  Clarity is needed regarding the jurisdiction of this law over the recently approved deal for Basra Gas Company-BGC with Shell and Mitsubishi. The proposed law could be interpreted to exclude this and similar important contracts in the future. Yet other law(s), which such contracts may fall under (such as Private Company Law nr. 21 of 1997 as the case for BGC) has NO jurisdiction over foreign investment in midstream and upstream petroleum sub-sectors.

27.  Finally, sufficient consideration should be given to assess the feasibility of having separate legislation for gas resources covering issues of conservation, production, utilization and any other pertaining matters.

28.  14- The Fiscal Regime

29.  The entire fiscal regime proposed in this law needs substantive revision since the components of the fiscal regime in the concluded service contracts are much superior and very different to those listed in articles under “CHAPTER VII: FISCAL REGIME” of the proposed law. Matters of taxation, royalty (irrelevant term under service contracts), auditing, record keeping are few examples of what has to be seriously revised.

30.  Moreover, since service contracts are and should be awarded through transparent, well prepared and competitive bid rounds then the following conditions, which has direct financial implications, in the proposed law become irrelevant and redundant, and thus have to be removed from item “fourth” of “Article 9: Grant of Rights”:

31.  “4-An appropriate return on investment to the investor; and

32.  5-Reasonable incentives to the investor for ensuring solutions which are optimal to the country in the long-term related to:..”

33.  Under competitive bid rounds it is natural and expected that competing IOCs would not submit their bids unless the business opportunity delivers an acceptable internal rate of return-IRR. Moreover, provision of the service contract themselves, which are normally known before conducting the bid round, should ensure optimal solutions to deliver best interest to Iraq during the term of the contract.

34.  15- Sustainable national development

35.  The law should clearly state that petroleum plans for exploration, development and production activities should be linked to the national development plans (medium and long terms). This linkage requires close coordination between the Ministry of Oil (responsible for proposing and follow-up of petroleum plans) and Ministry of Planning (responsible for proposing and follow-up of national plans). This coordination can take place within FOGC or within CoM. However, the final approval of national plans (and consequently petroleum plans) is the prerogative of the government (the executive branch) and the annual budget, covering investment and development requirements, has to be approved and legalized by law through the parliament.

36.  The plans linkage is essential to address the capacity limitations and mitigates the negative consequences of Dutch disease and attacks of resource curse- usual phenomenon for natural resource dependent economies.

37.  Therefore, provisions related to petroleum plans referred to in Articles 5, 6, 7 and 8 of the proposed law needs thorough revision and redrafting to regulate the above necessary linkage between petroleum plans and national sustainable plans.

38.  Concluding remarks

39.  The above demonstrates, in brief, why the February 2007 version of the law is not relevant any longer. However, if, for previous political commitments, that particular draft must be the negotiation’s starting point, then every page of that draft needs very serious and comprehensive redrafting.

40.  The magnitude of the negotiation and redrafting mission requires tremendous efforts from time and professional perspectives. Legal, technical, operational and many other matters ought to be addressed thoroughly and properly. This task needs specialized and integrated team of professionals (from both sides) NOT two/three-men show and definitely NOT POLITICAL DEAL as some have suggested.

41.  It is the duty of the government, under the constitution, to finalize a draft of the law and pass it to the Parliament for consideration, and promulgation if approved by the House. If the February 2007 draft is sent “AS IS ” to the parliament together with the positions of both governments (the federal and KRG), this would be a none-starter, and we are back to square one.

42.  Finally, what Iraq needs is viable, coherent and functioning petroleum law that ensures the best interests/ highest benefits of the Iraqi people, the sole and lawful owners of petroleum wealth, as enshrined in the Constitution. Such viable, coherent and functioning petroleum law would also, among other thing, provide better balance for the roles of the three branches of Government/authority; inclusive and effective contributions of the federal, regional and provincial governments; and thus would create higher degree of legal predictability and legal certainty for all parties involved including the foreign development partners and IOCs who are usually concerned with.

43.  1 Based on opinion I sent to the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform-IIER as a contribution to the workshop organized by IIER on the Federal Oil and Gas Law, Baghdad, 17 December 2011.

 

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